Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 26.394771 28.009149 29.727271 31.701709 33.920502 36.351845 39.238442
2025-12-07 23.946778 26.124577 28.562960 31.528799 35.086324 39.281485 44.706924
2025-12-14 22.155371 24.584009 27.390850 30.933178 35.374725 40.894537 48.513090
2025-12-21 20.832487 23.411304 26.464145 30.429168 35.580887 42.270018 52.044896
2025-12-28 20.299832 23.107737 26.514549 31.074657 37.231904 45.629062 58.753483
2026-01-04 19.740867 22.711857 26.391522 31.445595 38.505045 48.574671 65.366240
2026-01-11 19.230576 22.331210 26.241731 31.738879 39.660838 51.455056 72.443280
2026-01-18 18.642403 21.809424 25.862434 31.669118 40.258947 53.529280 78.577537
2026-01-25 17.946910 21.109468 25.200287 31.144320 40.112826 54.370888 82.594854
2026-02-01 17.323361 20.473589 24.587377 30.640946 39.940749 55.125226 86.595733
2026-02-08 16.753620 19.883923 24.006303 30.141681 39.722495 55.756791 90.483506
2026-02-15 16.284719 19.409483 23.559720 29.808274 39.731693 56.776060 95.502698
2026-02-22 16.119816 19.347282 23.694648 30.367713 41.274024 60.877272 109.534397
2026-03-01 15.737012 18.973062 23.372019 30.210701 41.604931 62.737560 118.697412
2026-03-08 15.260127 18.451793 22.816255 29.658070 41.203951 63.076894 123.703697
2026-03-15 14.838707 17.993305 22.332210 29.190002 40.910675 63.595886 129.555742
2026-03-22 14.755515 18.000633 22.519645 29.789383 42.563733 68.506986 153.070719
2026-03-29 14.604394 17.905402 22.549861 30.133507 43.781235 72.710702 178.066805
2026-04-05 14.441889 17.787173 22.538729 30.405427 44.885838 76.891636 208.098728
2026-04-12 14.200297 17.547448 22.334477 30.340760 45.327805 79.530824 234.263307
2026-04-19 13.863256 17.160896 21.894353 29.854028 44.889317 79.810686 247.139284
2026-04-26 13.546540 16.796097 21.476420 29.386730 44.456726 80.050540 260.669255
2026-05-03 13.244466 16.445619 21.070400 28.922822 43.999320 80.163955 274.118932